NOTE: I originally wrote this article in December 2018. Since then there has been a flurry (snow pun intended) of stories confirming much of what is laid out here by actual journalists and experts which I highly recommend reading here and here. And, as always, reading the 2018 IPCC report (linked below) is the best way to fully understand the dire situation we're in.
Since the publishing of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) October 2018 report, “Global Warming of 1.5 °C”, a barrage of articles with gloomy headlines have appeared in every major news outlet in the US. Most liberals and environmental advocates see the report as a prophecy of the disaster to come while some mainstream conservatives call the report alarmist and others continue to deny that humans are responsible for the changes in climate we’re now experiencing. In case the most comprehensive and damning international examination of climate change wasn’t enough, just over a month later, in November 2018, the Fourth National Climate Assessment, a joint report by thirteen US governmental agencies, extensively analyzed and quantified the damage climate change will do to our country in the next century.
Globally and long-term, the alarmists are, unfortunately, right; this will be very bad and the ways out are quite possibly beyond our ability as a species, due in no small part to lack of political action for decades. This is no longer just a problem for our grandchildren or even children. You and I are already witnessing some of the detrimental, large-scale consequences of our species’ practice of dumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Ice has melted and permafrost has thawed, oceans have risen and become more acidic, hurricanes and wildfires are more devastating, droughts are longer, species are becoming extinct and their habitats destroyed. The consequences are here and very real. Climate change is poised to transition from a political issue to a humanitarian one, but we’re the past the point of simply stopping it.
Sometimes it’s hard to see the damage; it’s diffuse and slow compared to the other issues of the day. Its costs are creeping and not always immediately apparent to the average citizen. It’s hard to fit this problem into the episodic and nearsighted tendencies of the news cycle and so it’s often just ignored. While global issues are difficult to comprehend for these reasons, local issues are not and Buffalo is already feeling the heat (and extreme cold, of course). There are no raging wildfires or massive superstorms here, but climate change is still leaving its mark in numerous ways.
Warming is Good for Agriculture . . . Right?
We can already see temperature changes affecting agriculture in New York State. The USDA measures growing temperatures with plant hardiness zones marking the coldest a region typically gets and thus what plant species can survive there. The zones range from 3b to 7b in New York State as of 2012. Below are two maps showing plant hardiness zones in New York State in 1990 (first slide) and in 2012 (second slide).
At first glance these blobs of color don’t mean much, but look closely and they reveal the creeping warming that is transforming our state and our region. Looking at Western New York in particular we see that, starting along Lake Erie and Ontario’s coastlines, the region is slowly warming from zone 6b to 6a. If this seems insignificant, keep in mind that this change has occurred over only 22 years. According to the 2018 IPCC report, over the next 50 years the scientific consensus is that global average temperatures will rise at an increasing rate if significant action is not taken. It is safe to say that, given current trends, much of Western New York will likely become zone 7a or even 7b by 2050, according to figures in a study by the University of Idaho. While this change is by no means entirely devastating like the severe changes predicted for the Southwest United States, it is a remarkable shift in a relatively short time span.
The exact implications of climate change on our region’s agricultural industry are not clear. It seems logical that, to a point, warming temperatures in a colder region like ours would be good for agricultural production but this isn’t quite true. As one would expect, the growing season in New York is expected to get longer yet, and while this is good for specific crops requiring longer growing seasons, it comes with many costs. According to a 2006 Cornell study on the impacts of climate change on the Northeast United States:
An extended frost-free period as projected for the NE (Hayhoe et al. 2007; Frumhoff et al. 2006) will tend to benefit those attempting to produce crops requiring a relatively long growing season such as watermelon (Citrullus lanatus), tomatoes, peppers (Capsicum annuum), peaches (Prunus persica), and European red wine grape (V. vinifera) varieties. However, as discussed below, climate projections for the region also indicate an increase in summer heat stress, drought, and weed and pest pressure, which can have negative consequences for warm temperature-adapted crops as well as crops adapted to the historically cool climate of the region.
The same study goes on to describe a model for predicting potato yields in Buffalo under three different emissions pathways (the rate at which we continue to add emissions to the atmosphere) modeled by the IPCC. The model predicted 12%, 22%, and 49% potato yield reductions for the low, middle, and high emissions scenarios respectively -- hardly the boom to agricultural production some claim the Northeast could experience as the region warms.
The study also claims that livestock will be negatively affected by regional warming. Dairy is no insignificant part of our region’s economy, with 82 milk-producing farms in Erie County as of May 2017. Dairy cows see their best milk production between 40.1 and 74.8°F and increasing temperatures will likely cause reduced production and birthing in these animals.
Beyond the direct implications that warming and more extreme weather will have on our crops and livestock mentioned here, there are a litany of other direct, indirect, and ecological impacts that could do permanent damage to Western New York’s historically significant and economically vital agricultural industry.
It’s easy to look from afar and think that a bit of warming would actually be good -- maybe you can eventually plant that citrus tree you’ve always wanted -- but although many regions of the world will see far more destruction of their farms, the changes we are seeing in Western New York will by no means be a net positive. To sum it up, it’s not as bad as many regions that face total destruction of their farmland, but it’s certainly not good either.
Warming Means Less Snow . . . Right?
Along with the surprising blow to agriculture, another counterintuitive effect of climate change in Western New York will be, at least temporarily, an increase in lake-effect snow. To understand why warming would lead to greater snowfall, it’s necessary to understand the fairly simple mechanism behind lake-effect snow itself.
Lake-effect snow occurs when a cold mass of air moves over a warmer body of water (such as a Great Lake). Moisture from the body of water is picked up by the colder air and rises, eventually freezing, and finally falling as the heavy, wet snow that the Buffalo region and other Great Lakes cities are known for. So how does the warming of the Buffalo area cause more of this snow to fall?
As the Great Lakes gradually warm with the rest of the planet (there has already been a 2°F increase in lake Great Lakes temperatures since 1900 and another 7.5 to 11°F is projected by 2100 if emissions are not curbed according to NOAA), the Great Lakes will freeze over for less of the year, providing more time for those cold air masses to pick up water and pelt Buffalo and other regions around the Great Lakes with lake-effect snow.
There is, however, a catch. We will likely see this increase in snow up until a certain point. Eventually, and there is no definitive prediction of when this will occur, air temperatures will warm enough to prevent the freezing of moisture picked up from the Great Lakes and this increase in snow will likely become an increase in rain instead. In short, get ready for more precipitation, whether it be snow or rain.
New York State’s Renewable Energy Push
Turning from environmental to industrial characteristics of the region, a major advantage Buffalo (and the state as a whole) has in a future faced with climate calamity is a heavy dependence on renewable and nuclear sources of energy with a low per capita dependence on petroleum for power. Behind the iconic Niagara Falls and on the Niagara River are hydroelectric plants providing power for much of the state, along with increasing dependence on solar and wind, coupled with six nuclear plants accounting for a third of the power produced in the state.
Along with a strong status quo in the energy sector, New York State has a progressive and aggressive plan for decreasing dependence on non-renewables, perhaps second only to California, the gold standard of renewable energy policy. New York’s 2015 Energy Plan calls for a 40% reduction in energy sector emissions from 1990 to 2030 as well as 50% renewable energy generation by 2030.
If these ambitious goals are actually met, our region’s power grid will be in very good position to remain stable as fossil fuels are phased out or heavily regulated to curb emissions.
What About the People?
It’s easy to let the numbers, technology, and policies overshadow the human cost when discussing the implications of climate change but how these changes will affect humans is perhaps most important of all. Living in Buffalo, away from the rising sea levels, the coastal land being eaten away steadily, and the rapidly disappearing permafrost and glaciers, it’s easy to forget that millions of people, including Americans, are being displaced as we speak by the changing climate. If this is difficult to wrap your head around it may be helpful to look at one of the most dramatic examples in the United States happening as you read this, the Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw Native Americans of the Isle de Jean Charles in coastal Louisiana.
The isle this tribe inhabits has shrunk from roughly 60 square miles in the 1950s to less than 0.5 square miles today as a result of both industry and sea-level rise due to climate change. In addition to an ocean slowly consuming them, the tribe’s land is also increasingly battered by hurricanes and tropical storms as the wetlands that once protected it have been destroyed. According to Louisiana’s Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority, if nothing is done, the isle, along with eleven other communities, will be dramatically changed, if not gone, in the next 50 years. The inhabitants have no choice but to move their community elsewhere as their land is vanishing and they are now climate refugees.
The tribe is not alone and this sort of devastation will not be limited to obscure tribal communities. Since 1980, extreme weather events have cost the United States somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.5 trillion. The National Climatic Data Center’s report on extreme weather events from 1980 to 2003 shows that population growth has occurred mostly in coastal regions and those most often hit by extreme weather events. Our country (and most others around the globe) have grown in a way that makes us more susceptible to climate change. Hurricanes Katrina, Florence, and Maria, the Camp, Woolsey, and Thomas wildfires, are only the beginning of the human displacement, injuries, and deaths climate change will cause in the United States. So where does Buffalo come in?
Buffalo is located in a region that, although not immune to climate change, faces no imminent existential threat like those listed above. Our only coastline is a lake, leaving us somewhat insulated from sea-level rise. An increase in surface temperature will only make the area more temperate for human habitation over the next century. Our energy production is largely non-petroleum derived and our risk of river flooding does not seem to be dramatically rising. Along with these factors is Buffalo’s unique ability to take in displaced populations.
It’s no secret that Buffalo, although rebounding in recent years, is not in its golden age and the population reflects that. Our population has been declining or remaining roughly stable since the 1950s according to census data, community surveys, and population estimation models. Quite simply, this means that Buffalo has plenty of room to grow. Couple this with Buffalo’s unusually high refugee population (and existing services for integration of them) and you have what seems to be a prime location for climate refugee resettlement of both Americans and other affected populations from around the globe. This surge in population could potentially provide a very much needed economic bolster in a time when climate change will be exacting severe economic costs on much of the world. This, however, is not a guarantee by any means of a second golden age due to climate change.
So What’s the Verdict?
Several articles, from both local and national publications, have been written claiming Buffalo stands to benefit from climate change. An article by Greg Easterbrook in The Atlantic mentions in passing: “If a warming world makes the area less cold and snowy, Buffalo might become one of the country’s desirable addresses.” This of course ignores the reality of lake-effect snow formation, as well as the numerous other negative effects Buffalo will experience from climate change.
Another article in Medium written by Justin Nobel goes into more detail but effectively makes the same claim, relying on Harvard Graduate School of Design lecturer Jesse Keenan’s assessment that access to fresh water and room to grow make Buffalo a likely beneficiary of climate change’s effects in this century. An article written by Buffalo Rising’s founder, Newell Nussbaumer, discusses Nobel’s article, going so far as to say: “The biggest problem for Buffalonians would be the drastic change in an effortless lifestyle that residents cherish. Nobel predicts that climate refugees will seek solace here, which could mean that the population would begin to grow in a rapid manner.”
However, in speaking with Dr. Nicholas Rajkovich, a University at Buffalo Assistant Professor of Architecture and faculty expert on climate change, it isn’t so black and white. He cautions:
Although authors like Greg Easterbrook and Jesse Keenan have argued that Buffalo might be a good place to be as the climate changes, it doesn’t mean that we’re immune from climate impacts in Western New York. In addition, we’re part of the larger New York State economies – whatever happens to New York City or the Southern Tier will certainly impact our economy. I personally think that we need to address how climate change will impact our nation, state, and regions – across all of these scales simultaneously – before we start picking cities that win or lose under climate change.
The most compelling argument that Buffalo will benefit in a century defined by global warming is the hopeful claim of an economic boom from an influx of climate refugees moving into a city with room to grow. Rajkovich, however, again urges caution in drawing any conclusions, saying: “It’s hard to predict where people will want to resettle because of climate change – there’s a lot of social, economic, environmental, and policy factors in play.”
This is the real answer to the broader question of how Buffalo fares -- it’s hard to predict. Certainly, there are characteristics of our region that give it an advantage as climate change takes its toll on the world: it is protected from rising sea levels, it has access to renewable energy, temperatures are cold trending toward temperate, and it may benefit from climate refugees. But there are many potentially devastating consequences too: decreased agricultural output, invasive species, more frequent and extreme precipitation, and the uncountable and largely indeterminable downstream effects from the losses our country and world face from the changing climate.
This article is by no means a comprehensive rundown of every effect climate change will have on Buffalo. Rather, it is an overview of a few key areas that climate change is already affecting or will affect with the hope of localizing an issue typically portrayed as large-scale and global. Even with the few advantages discussed here and perhaps a longer timeframe than many regions before serious devastation comes our way, it is still coming. As local ecosystems and economies alike are already being damaged, the importance of mitigating and adapting to a changing climate grows by the day. For the people who live in Buffalo, these local actions to address climate change are just as important as international action if humans are to overcome this existential threat we face.
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